STUMBLING GIANT

One of Hong Kong’s most successful entrepreneurs and the founder of the largest independent investment bank in the Far East, Timothy Beardson is uniquely positioned to clarify fact from fiction in the trends and conditions that will fire up or stall the growth, transformation, and—potentially—conflict in the Asian focal point, China. In his ground breaking new book, a nuanced, first-hand look at China, STUMBLING GIANT: The Threats to China’s Future (Yale University Press; May 21, 2013; Hardcover $35.00), Beardson boldly counters the widely held predictions of the country’s near-certain rise to global supremacy, and brings to light the daunting array of issues that confront China in its path to becoming a superpower.

Much has been written on the emergence of China, with some forecasting the country’s dominance and others predicting its collapse. In STUMBLING GIANT, Timothy Beardson uses a multidisciplinary approach to examine China, taking an informed look at key aspects of the country’s current position, from environmental and economic policies through to social and political
considerations.

Drawing on extensive research, Timothy Beardson spells out the details of China’s situation. China faces a demographic outlook of remorseless aging. One quarter of the population of Shanghai, deemed China’s first senior city, is now over the age of 60. A McKinsey Quarterly survey claims that a child’s need to care for parents will reduce the country’s labor mobility, while an increasingly elderly population could cause a severe pension deficit.

Another acute threat to growth that Beardson highlights is a low-tech economy that is not demonstrating sufficient innovation. China’s research and development intensity, which is a crucial element in overtaking other nations, is 40% less than that of the U.S., and a Global Competitiveness Report 2011-12 by the World Economic Forum ranked China as only the 26th most competitive economy in the world. Other challenges that Beardson explores include extreme gender disparity, social instability, a devastated environment, a diminishing labor force and the absence of an effective welfare safety net. He presents bold policy prescriptions addressing these challenges and explains why without substantial reform China is unlikely to replace America as the next superpower.

Crosby Financial Holdings, founded by Beardson, was the first investment bank to be licensed in China and was also actively engaged in the opening of the Shanghai stock exchange. Beardson uses his extensive experience from living and working in Asia over the last 35 years to offer bold policy prescriptions as to how China could address the problems it will face.

Packed with original ideas and insightful perspectives, STUMBLING GIANT takes a fresh approach to China and challenges the reader to look at the country in a different light in order to understand why it will not replace America as the world superpower in this century.

About Timothy Beardson

Timothy Beardson founded and ran Crosby Financial Holdings, the largest independent investment bank in the Far East. An integral part of Hong Kong’s economic ascendance who has lived and worked in Asia for more than 35 years, Beardson successfully sold Crosby. Since the late 1990s he has been a frequent speaker on political, economic, environmental and strategic issues at the World Economic Forum at Davos, at prominent universities, and to corporate boards and central banks. He is also Chairman of the China Oxford Scholarship Fund, which gives scholarships to talented Chinese graduates from poor families to study at the University of Oxford.